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Amid the ongoing Iran war, the roar of the Middle East's commercial tourism has been replaced by the steady hum of repatriation flights, leaving vacationers to navigate the landscape of rising airfares and safety concerns. It's yet another airspace closure that airlines have had to deal with since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
It's a stark contrast to a prediction from the United Arab Emirates' Ministry of Economy and Tourism that the country would amass a market volume of almost $950 billion by 2026. Dubai, in particular, finds its position as the crown jewel of Middle East's tourism faltering as its airports have been forced to shut temporarily during the conflict.
Dutch consumers are booking summer and May holidays more cautiously following the Iran war, with travel patterns shifting sharply toward familiar European destinations while long-haul and Asian travel declines, according to the ANVR, the Dutch travel industry association, and tour operators.
The ANVR says that under normal conditions, about 80 percent of May and summer vacations are booked by this time of year, but that pattern has changed significantly this year.
“Shortly after the outbreak of the war, bookings completely stalled. Fortunately, they have started again, with Europe especially heavily booked. Asia is being avoided. The Dutch appear to be choosing what is familiar. If there is anything travelers dislike, it is uncertainty, so you generally see caution,” said ANVR director Frank Radstake.
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Global instability did little to slow the growth of international tourism in 2025. According to the U.N. Tourism Data Dashboard, the total number of international travellers last year stood at over 1.5 billion, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. The question is no longer whether geopolitics makes us travel less, but how it reshapes tourist flows.
For a long time, geopolitical crises had an almost automatic impact on this sector. Instability led to fewer travellers, fewer bookings, and less activity.
Following the sharp decline in travel caused by the pandemic, international tourism has been growing, even in the face of mounting conflicts and uncertainty. But as numbers grow, travel patterns are also shifting. One of the clearest examples of this can be found in the Gulf, a region that has invested billions of dollars to establish itself as an innovative tourist destination, and as a major hub linking Europe, Asia and Africa.
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