Explore the latest developments concerning NOAA's 2026 Atlantic.
NOAA's 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast: What you need to know
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday issued its official outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins on June 1 and lasts until Nov. 30.
Forecasters are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin, which comprises the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
There’s roughly a 55% chance the season will be below normal, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season, according to the outlook.
NOAA is forecasting a range of eight to 14 total named storms. The federal weather agency assigns a name to a storm when it officially becomes a tropical storm, when its maximum sustained winds reach at least 39 mph. Out of those named storms, three to six are forecast to become hurricanes (maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph or higher), including one to three major hurricanes (considered Category 3, 4 or 5).
NOAA reveals 2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity forecast as Super El Niño looms
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross joins us to talk about the NOAA hurricane season outlook released on Thursday. The agency predicts a below-average season in the Atlantic, with 8-14 named storms, 3-6 hurricanes and 1-3 Category 3+ hurricanes. Norcross talks about how El Niño plays into this outlook.
NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast Thursday, predicting a below-average season with 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, which include 1 to 3 major (Category 3+) storms this year.
This satellite image shows Hurricane Melissa south of Jamaica on Sunday, Oct. 26, 2025.
In comparison, an average Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
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The next era of Atlantic hurricanes could be far more destructive
Wild year-to-year swings — from punishing hyperactive seasons to quiet years with little activity — could well become the norm for future Atlantic hurricane seasons, according to recent climate change research.
The latest science paints a complex but alarming future, as the unprecedented amount of heat that humans are supplying to the climate system disrupts the fundamental atmospheric circulation pattern in which we designed our civilization.
During the coming busy seasons, death and destruction from unprecedented hurricane catastrophes will probably grow much more commonplace, because even as risks grow, people have continued to build in risky flood-prone regions. But eventually, the coming hurricane catastrophes will pose an increasing threat to the viability of living in many coastal areas, particularly in the Caribbean.
For more detailed information, explore updates concerning NOAA's 2026 Atlantic.