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Critical Atlantic current significantly more likely to collapse than thought

Scientists say finding is ‘very concerning’ as collapse would be catastrophic for Europe, Africa and the Americas

The critical Atlantic current system appears significantly more likely to collapse than previously thought after new research found that climate models predicting the biggest slowdown are the most realistic. Scientists called the new finding “very concerning” as a collapse would have catastrophic consequences for Europe, Africa and the Americas.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc) is a major part of the global climate system and was already known to be at its weakest for 1,600 years as a result of the climate crisis. Scientists spotted warning signs of a tipping point in 2021 and know that the Amoc has collapsed in the Earth’s past.

Collapse of key ocean current may release billions of tonnes of carbon

If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation shut down, the knock-on effects could release hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2, raising global temperatures even further

The seas around Antarctica might begin releasing CO2Nigel Killeen/Getty Images

Global warming caused by humanity’s carbon emissions has been slowing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a system of currents including the Gulf Stream that warms Europe. If the AMOC collapsed entirely, it could release massive amounts of carbon from the deep Southern Ocean into the atmosphere, a feedback that would warm the Earth even more.

Previous research has shown that AMOC shutdown could cause colder winters in Europe, disrupt monsoons in Africa and Asia, and increase global temperatures. But new computer modelling has shown it would also emit as much as 640 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide near Antarctica, heating the planet by an additional 0.2°C.

Latest Research Suggests AMOC Could Collapse Sooner Than Expected

Water is water, right? Yes and no. There are a number of factors that can affect the characteristics of water and make it do interesting things. Hot water is less dense than cold water, which can create a thermosyphon effect. In Germany, a company called Eavor is using it to make its closed loop geothermal system work. Water heated by rocks deep underground rises to the surface without the need for pumps because it is lighter than cooler water being piped down a different well alongside.

Impurities can also affect the properties of water — the things that make seawater salty, for instance. Differences in salinity can cause water in the ocean to rise to the surface or fall toward the bottom. And don’t forget that the Earth is spinning, which helps create the great ocean currents that swirl clockwise in the northern hemisphere and counterclockwise in the southern hemisphere.

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