Long-range forecast: First look – September to November 2026 | Weather news: El Niño is headed…

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Weather news: El Niño is headed for record-shattering intensity, NOAA says

There is a nearly 70 per cent chance that the building Super El Niño will be the strongest such event on record, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast released on Thursday.

Previously, NOAA had been projecting that this event would likely rank “among the largest El Niño events in the historical record”.

A flooded street is filled with fallen scooters during heavy rain brought by Typhoon Dolphin after it weakened into a tropical storm, in Xiangyang, Hubei province, China this week. Go Nakamura/Reuters via CNN Newsource

The change in the forecast largely stems from how rapidly this El Niño is intensifying, along with computer model guidance nearly unanimously showing it will peak in late fall and early winter at a level that is stronger than previously thought. NOAA’s El Niño intensity records date back to 1950.

Records fall as El Niño strengthens

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Records are being broken in the ocean and atmosphere as El Niño continues to strengthen in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The Bureau of Meteorology officially declared that El Niño was underway in mid-June 2026, with modelling at the time indicating this could become one of the strongest events on record. This outlook appears to be materialising, with two records being broken last month.

The dynamic landscape of current events often brings forth significant discussions. Monitoring these developments provides crucial insights.

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