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Why Bitcoin May Be Underpricing January Rate Cut Odds
Bitcoin’s flat price action and subdued volatility suggest investors may be overlooking a shift in Federal Reserve expectations, potentially leaving the token mispriced ahead of key inflation data, analysts said.
The core of the argument is that markets are too complacent.
“Risk into tomorrow's CPI print feels a bit asymmetric to me, given the market expects a ~60% chance of no more cuts under Powell,” Quinn Thompson, CIO of Lekker Capital, tweeted on Monday.
He argues that the roughly 75% odds of just one cut before the midterms also “seem too low,” particularly with Trump's new Federal Reserve appointee, Stephen Miran, positioned to influence policy.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP slide amid ETF outflows and volatility risks
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $90,000 at the time of writing on Thursday as volatility grips the broader cryptocurrency market. The decline from BTC’s weekly high of $94,789 can be attributed to uncertainty about wether the early-year rally will continue, which likely triggered profit-taking.
Altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), also face increasing selling pressure, which continues to trim early-year gains.
Bitcoin spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recorded outflows of $486 million on Wednesday, the highest single-day withdrawals since November 20, as prices across the crypto market faltered. Fidelity’s FBTC led with nearly $248 million in outflows, followed by BlackRock’s IBIT with almost $130 million and 21Shares’ ARKB with approximately $42 million.
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