Tag: rba

Live updates: Another RBA rate hike not ruled out as economists dig into unemployment data | Unem…

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Live updates: Another RBA rate hike not ruled out as economists dig into unemployment data

The unemployment rate has reached a 5-year high as part-time employment plunged by 73,700.

Statistically, though, the jobless rate has remained steady at 4.7 per cent as the August unemployment rate was revised upward.

Some economists view the increase in the unemployment rate as insufficient to prevent another RBA interest rate hike on Melbourne Cup Day.

Follow the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog.

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Unemployment in Australia hits a five-year high of 4.7%, making a rates hike less likely

Australia’s unemployment rate has hit a five-year high of 4.7% in September, official figures show. The last time it was higher was at the end of the COVID lockdowns in October 2021.

Throughout 2026, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has increased steadily, up from 4.1% in January. The warning signs of a slowing labour market are mounting.

A weaker jobs market makes it more likely the Reserve Bank of Australia can wait before moving to raise interest rates again. After the latest jobs figures came out, market expectations of an interest rate rise in early November fell, from 30% tipping a rate rise to just 18%.

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ASX 200 LIVE: Australia employment falls in September, unemployment rises to 4.7pc according to jobs data

Anthropic results may aid IPO but not AI trade, analysts say

Kapstream says RBA unlikely to stop at one rate rise, more to come

Majors BHP, Rio Tinto drag the bourse lower amid mining sell-off

The Australian sharemarket pared earlier losses after a softer than expected employment report suggested the central bank may not need to raise borrowing costs further to manage inflation.

The S&P/ASX 200 Index was down 13.3 points, or 0.2 per cent, to 8714.6 by 1.45pm AEDT. The gauge earlier dropped as much as 0.9 per cent, dragged lower by a heavy sell-off in tech stocks on Wall Street after a hotter-than-expected US inflation report spooked the market about higher rates.

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October 15, 2026
Breaking: RBA lifts rates to highest level in 15 years | Australia news LIVE: RBA hikes interest …

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Breaking: RBA lifts rates to highest level in 15 years

The RBA is trying to bring inflation down to 2-3 per cent. (ABC News: Daniel Irvine)

The Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Board has lifted interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.

It lifts the cash rate target to 4.60 per cent, up from 4.35 per cent. It is the highest rate since late 2011.

The Bureau of Statistics will release its September inflation data tomorrow.

The Reserve Bank has lifted interest rates to their highest level in 15 years.

It has increased rates by 0.25 percentage points, which lifts the cash rate target to 4.6 per cent, up from 4.35 per cent.

It will be a blow to home owners with large mortgages. It is also the highest cash rate millions of households have faced since taking on a mortgage after 2011.

Australia news LIVE: RBA hikes interest rates to 4.6 per cent in 15-year high; OpenAI apologises for Medicare data breach

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of national news this Tuesday, September 29. Here’s what is making headlines today.

And US President Donald Trump said he had not discussed selling arms to China, contradicting a suggestion made by his ambassador to Beijing. “I never heard of that,” the president told reporters in the Oval Office overnight.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers has refused to say whether he is predicting another rate rise this year from the Reserve Bank, after interest rates increased to their highest level in 15 years.

“Obviously, I’m not going to make predictions or try and pre-empt decisions that the Reserve Bank will consider, you know, in the months or the years ahead. I think most Australians will be doing their best to digest the information that’s been provided by the Reserve Bank in the last half hour or so, 40 minutes or so,” Chalmers said.

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Mortgage calculator: Here’s how much extra your repayments will be

The Reserve Bank of Australia has confirmed its fourth interest rate rise of 2026, increasing the cash rate target to 4.60 per cent.

The increase of 25 basis points from the previous mark of 4.35 per cent takes interest rates to their highest level in 15 years.

Use our mortgage calculator below to see the likely impact of the rate rise on your loan repayments. On a 25-year loan of $600,000 at 6.50 per cent, your mortgage would cost an extra $93 each month.

You can change all the inputs to match your loan amount, term length and agreed interest rate below.

Calculations are based on monthly fixed interest rate increases on the principal loan amount, excluding requisite monthly repayments, adjustments to repayment amounts, or additional repayment instalments.

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September 29, 2026
The RBA has no choice but to hike rates as US currency crown slips | Further interest rate hikes …

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The RBA has no choice but to hike rates as US currency crown slips

Trust in America, and its currency, is fading fast. (ABC News: Giulio Saggin/File)

It is a phrase synonymous with American dominance, especially when it came to matters financial.

While it first appeared on a 2-cent coin in 1864, it wasn't officially adopted until 1956, when Dwight D Eisenhower declared it the national motto. Now, the phrase appears on every US coin and printed currency note.

With a hint of moral superiority, combined with equal parts US economic and military power, the greenback and its position as the world's reserve currency have symbolised America's global hegemony since the end of World War II.

Further interest rate hikes could ‘devastate’ property market without easing unaffordability

With RBA predicted to lift cash rate for fourth time this year on Tuesday, experts warn a fifth â or even sixth â rise would be âoverkillâ

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Two or even three more Reserve Bank interest rate hikes would be âdevastatingâ for the property market but still leave housing more unaffordable than ever as higher borrowing costs trump lower prices, experts say.

The RBAâs monetary policy board is widely expected on Tuesday afternoon to announce an increase in its cash rate to 4.6%, from 4.35%, in a decision that will add another $100 to the monthly mortgage interest bill on a $700,000 loan.

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Just one advanced country will have higher rates if RBA raises

Australia will have the highest cash rate in the developed world bar one country if Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock delivers an interest rate rise as expected on Tuesday, undercutting the Albanese government’s efforts to convince voters it is helping with the cost of living.

Financial markets are certain the nine-member RBA board will deliver its fourth rate rise of the year, after a run of stronger-than-expected data pointed to stubborn domestic inflation pressures and an economy running beyond capacity.

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September 29, 2026
‘Not a rounding error’: RBA move to wipe $58k off loans | Silver lining in plunging house pri…

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‘Not a rounding error’: RBA move to wipe $58k off loans

A fourth rate hike could deliver a brutal new blow to battered home buyers, but South Australians may be hit hardest on the mainland where borrowers have stretched further and faster than almost anywhere else.

New Canstar analysis shows a buyer on the average full-time wage of $108,650 would be able to borrow about $11,200 less if the Reserve Bank lifts the cash rate again on Tuesday.

For a typical borrower, that would take the total reduction in borrowing capacity to $47,400 this year, or about 9 per cent, based on an owner-occupier with no other debts, no dependants and minimal expenses.

While Tasmania is tipped to wear the biggest hit nationally, South Australia stands out as the mainland state under the most pressure, with the lowest average mainland wage at $102,732 and borrowers already carrying sharply larger mortgages than they were just a few years ago.

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September 28, 2026
Rates strategy shifts as RBA poised to prioritise inflation over jobs | Major bank hikes rates in…

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Rates strategy shifts as RBA poised to prioritise inflation over jobs

The Reserve Bank of Australia looks close to abandoning its goal of protecting employment gains while it addresses inflation as economy wide price pressures remain uncomfortably hot.

Economists say recent data – showing strong economic activity despite three interest rate rises this year, conflict in the Middle East and the impact of the government’s tax changes – had primed the central bank to tame rampant price increases by shifting its approach to focus more on the inflation component of their dual mandate.

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Major bank hikes rates in ‘clear sign’ of RBA’s next move

A major bank has lifted interest rates in a further sign that another hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia is highly anticipated.

ING said it would increase its fixed interest rates for owner-occupier and investor home loans by 0.2 per cent.

This will apply to all fixed rate loans that settle from today.

Richard Whitten, money and home loans expert at Finder, said it was a “clear sign” the bank expected the RBA board to raise the cash rate soon.

“Banks are experts at forecasting and setting interest rates in line with the market,” he told nine.com.au.

“They lower fixed rates when they anticipate interest rates to fall further, and lift them when they expect rates to rise.”

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Macca’s meals and Macbooks: How Australians are getting whacked by inflation

Australia’s inflation woes are spreading out from the fuel sector to everything from discount fast food meals to premium computers, keeping inflation higher as merchants begin to price in costs that they had once tried to absorb.

Over the past year, food and beverage prices rose 3.2 per cent, alcohol prices gained 4.5 per cent, and clothing and footwear increased 4.8 per cent on average, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

“There are a bunch of businesses who haven’t shifted their prices or haven’t shifted them much because they keep hoping price shocks will be temporary,” said independent economist Chris Richardson. “But as this looks more and more like a forever war, businesses will build that into their pricing.”

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September 17, 2026
The RBA doesn’t think it will raise rates again, but it doesn’t want you to know | RBA misreads h…

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The RBA doesn't think it will raise rates again, but it doesn't want you to know

Michele Bullock says it's important Australians believe the RBA will hike rates if it needs to. (AAP: Dan Himbrechts)

Every second meeting, the Reserve Bank's boffins produce a set of economic forecasts that guides the board's thinking for the next three months.

The latest set of forecasts is good news for mortgage borrowers fearing further rate hikes.

Inflation was dramatically lower than the RBA expected just three months ago in May, even though oil prices behaved much as expected.

What's more, the bank continues to expect inflation to fall to the mid-point of its 2-3 per cent target range by the end of 2027, even though rates are tipped to be lower.

RBA misreads hidden crisis as homeowners left with bad credit for common home act

Australia’s Reserve Bank could be playing a game of financial Russian roulette with homeowners, relying on a statistical blind spot that could trigger another crippling interest rate blow.

The RBA announced at its latest board meeting Tuesday that interest rates would be kept on hold, but noted that future rate rises remained a possibility.

“The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise,” The RBA said.

But mortgage brokers have criticised the prospect of further rate hikes, arguing the RBA had a flawed understanding of just how far it could push homeowners.

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August 17, 2026
RBA interest rate relief this week could be brief as Australians told to ‘buckle up’ | Inflation …

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RBA interest rate relief this week could be brief as Australians told to 'buckle up'

After better than expected inflation data, most economists are expecting the Reserve Bank to hold rates steady when it meets this coming week. But borrowers are being warned not to be lulled into a false sense of security.

While household spending remains surprisingly resilient, and domestic driven parts of the CPI basket continue to run much to hot, a small minority of experts think the RBA could defy expectations on Tuesday and hike rates.

A majority of experts polled by consumer site Finder found more than 90 per cent expect a hold. Only three of the 38 believe we are in for a hike this week.

Inflation numbers to bring relief for mortgage holders

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Mortgage holders will likely be able to breathe a sigh of relief with the Reserve Bank largely tipped to keep interest rates on hold.

Governor Michele Bullock and the central bank's board will meet on Monday and Tuesday, with economists forecasting the cash rate to stay at 4.35 per cent.

The prediction follows a surprise fall in inflation, despite it still being well above the bank's target band of two to three per cent.

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RBA should defy the markets and not miss opportunity to raise rates

An increase weeks before the start of the spring selling season would draw a much clearer line between monetary policy and the troubles in our housing markets.

I expect to see the Reserve Bank monetary policy board, with a 4-3 vote, increase the cash rate by 0.25 of a percentage point on Tuesday.

A rate rise would serve a number of purposes, amplified by the very low probability markets are putting on a move.

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August 9, 2026
RBA now twice as likely to hike interest rate as US-Iran war drives fuel prices higher | The Iran…

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RBA now twice as likely to hike interest rate as US-Iran war drives fuel prices higher

Experts warn global energy market at a ‘critical juncture’ with escalating Middle East crisis expected to further drag on a slowing Australian economy

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The likelihood of a Reserve Bank interest rate hike has doubled, according to market forecasts, as the escalating Middle East crisis once again drives fuel prices higher amid dwindling global oil reserves.

The total breakdown in the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has sent the international Brent crude benchmark surging by 23% over the past two weeks and back within reach of $US90 a barrel.

The Iran war’s big oil mystery: No one seems to want it

Two dominant forces balance the global oil market: supply and demand. The Iran war has broken both â one perhaps beyond repair.

Supply remains a complete mess. A historic crude glut turned into the worst-ever supply shock before another flood of oil entered the market in June. Now, an intensifying war has again closed off significant access to Persian Gulf oil, reinjecting chaos into the market.

The world has adapted to the supply shock during five months of war, learning how to cope without using as much oil as it had before the conflict. Hundreds of millions of barrels of oil finally escaped the Strait of Hormuz last month, only to find few willing buyers. Some Middle Eastern crude had to be heavily discounted before it found any takers.

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Analysts warn Middle East escalation could hurt Australians at bowser | ABC News Top Stories

Middle East analysts warn Australia could be hit with rising fuel prices and potential shortages due to the latest escalation in the war there.

A new study shows the spouse of someone with dementia has a higher risk of developing dementia, but that risk can vary, depending on income.

The US is imposing a 50 per cent tariff on a wide range of Canadian products.

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July 22, 2026
Big Four divided on RBA direction as one major bank warns two interest rate hikes still ahead | V…

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Big Four divided on RBA direction as one major bank warns two interest rate hikes still ahead

Australia's major banks are divided on which direction interest rates will go next. Three of the Big Four banks think interest rate rises are now over and the next move will be down, but one is predicting mortgage holders could be in for a further two interest rate hikes this year.

The one thing all of the bank economists are in agreement about is that borrowers will get some reprieve at the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) June meeting this week. The central bank has already hiked rates three times this year, taking the cash rate to 4.35 per cent.

ANZ joined Commonwealth Bank and NAB on Friday in predicting the RBA has reached the peak of its rate hiking cycle and will remain on hold for the rest of the year. ANZ is expecting two rate cuts in the second half of 2027.

VIDEO: Why experts are tipping interest rates to pause

After three interest rate increases at the start of the year, economists now expect the Reserve Bank to hold rates steady for a while.

After three interest rate increases at the start of the year, economists now expect the Reserve Bank to hold rates steady for a while.

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June 14, 2026
RBA done raising rates as housing faces tax ‘headwinds’, banks | Three major banks predict in…

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RBA done raising rates as housing faces tax ‘headwinds’, banks

Bank economists are tipping interest rate rises are over and the next move will be down, as a former Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor warns the housing market faces headwinds from the government’s tax changes.

HSBC on Friday joined ANZ and National Australia Bank in predicting the RBA would not move beyond its three interest rate rises this year and would be on a long hold before cutting rates next year.

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Three major banks predict interest rates to fall next year – as it happened

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Top economists at ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and NAB are now predicting interest rates will not rise any higher this year and will start to fall from the middle of next year.

ANZ today changed its rate call to predict two cash rate cuts in 2027. It had previously expected rates to remain steady for the foreseeable future.

HSBCâs Paul Bloxham also has now changed and expects no change until cuts in late 2027. Bloxham said:

double quotation markInflation is still too high and is set to rise further before it falls. That being said, the RBA has already taken significant action to deal with this surge in inflation â and, critically, the action is working â¦
We expect the RBA to be on hold in June. Although there is some risk the RBA might choose to hike again beyond that, we expect the weakening in growth to convince them to be on hold.

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June 13, 2026