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  • The RBA doesn’t think it will raise rates again, but it doesn’t want you to know | RBA misreads h…

    The RBA doesn’t think it will raise rates again, but it doesn’t want you to know | RBA misreads h…

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    The RBA doesn't think it will raise rates again, but it doesn't want you to know

    Michele Bullock says it's important Australians believe the RBA will hike rates if it needs to. (AAP: Dan Himbrechts)

    Every second meeting, the Reserve Bank's boffins produce a set of economic forecasts that guides the board's thinking for the next three months.

    The latest set of forecasts is good news for mortgage borrowers fearing further rate hikes.

    Inflation was dramatically lower than the RBA expected just three months ago in May, even though oil prices behaved much as expected.

    What's more, the bank continues to expect inflation to fall to the mid-point of its 2-3 per cent target range by the end of 2027, even though rates are tipped to be lower.

    RBA misreads hidden crisis as homeowners left with bad credit for common home act

    Australia’s Reserve Bank could be playing a game of financial Russian roulette with homeowners, relying on a statistical blind spot that could trigger another crippling interest rate blow.

    The RBA announced at its latest board meeting Tuesday that interest rates would be kept on hold, but noted that future rate rises remained a possibility.

    “The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if upside risks materialise,” The RBA said.

    But mortgage brokers have criticised the prospect of further rate hikes, arguing the RBA had a flawed understanding of just how far it could push homeowners.

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  • RBA interest rate relief this week could be brief as Australians told to ‘buckle up’ | Inflation …

    RBA interest rate relief this week could be brief as Australians told to ‘buckle up’ | Inflation …

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    RBA interest rate relief this week could be brief as Australians told to 'buckle up'

    After better than expected inflation data, most economists are expecting the Reserve Bank to hold rates steady when it meets this coming week. But borrowers are being warned not to be lulled into a false sense of security.

    While household spending remains surprisingly resilient, and domestic driven parts of the CPI basket continue to run much to hot, a small minority of experts think the RBA could defy expectations on Tuesday and hike rates.

    A majority of experts polled by consumer site Finder found more than 90 per cent expect a hold. Only three of the 38 believe we are in for a hike this week.

    Inflation numbers to bring relief for mortgage holders

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    Mortgage holders will likely be able to breathe a sigh of relief with the Reserve Bank largely tipped to keep interest rates on hold.

    Governor Michele Bullock and the central bank's board will meet on Monday and Tuesday, with economists forecasting the cash rate to stay at 4.35 per cent.

    The prediction follows a surprise fall in inflation, despite it still being well above the bank's target band of two to three per cent.

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    RBA should defy the markets and not miss opportunity to raise rates

    An increase weeks before the start of the spring selling season would draw a much clearer line between monetary policy and the troubles in our housing markets.

    I expect to see the Reserve Bank monetary policy board, with a 4-3 vote, increase the cash rate by 0.25 of a percentage point on Tuesday.

    A rate rise would serve a number of purposes, amplified by the very low probability markets are putting on a move.

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  • RBA now twice as likely to hike interest rate as US-Iran war drives fuel prices higher | The Iran…

    RBA now twice as likely to hike interest rate as US-Iran war drives fuel prices higher | The Iran…

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    RBA now twice as likely to hike interest rate as US-Iran war drives fuel prices higher

    Experts warn global energy market at a ‘critical juncture’ with escalating Middle East crisis expected to further drag on a slowing Australian economy

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    The likelihood of a Reserve Bank interest rate hike has doubled, according to market forecasts, as the escalating Middle East crisis once again drives fuel prices higher amid dwindling global oil reserves.

    The total breakdown in the fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has sent the international Brent crude benchmark surging by 23% over the past two weeks and back within reach of $US90 a barrel.

    The Iran war’s big oil mystery: No one seems to want it

    Two dominant forces balance the global oil market: supply and demand. The Iran war has broken both — one perhaps beyond repair.

    Supply remains a complete mess. A historic crude glut turned into the worst-ever supply shock before another flood of oil entered the market in June. Now, an intensifying war has again closed off significant access to Persian Gulf oil, reinjecting chaos into the market.

    The world has adapted to the supply shock during five months of war, learning how to cope without using as much oil as it had before the conflict. Hundreds of millions of barrels of oil finally escaped the Strait of Hormuz last month, only to find few willing buyers. Some Middle Eastern crude had to be heavily discounted before it found any takers.

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    Analysts warn Middle East escalation could hurt Australians at bowser | ABC News Top Stories

    Middle East analysts warn Australia could be hit with rising fuel prices and potential shortages due to the latest escalation in the war there.

    A new study shows the spouse of someone with dementia has a higher risk of developing dementia, but that risk can vary, depending on income.

    The US is imposing a 50 per cent tariff on a wide range ​of Canadian products.

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  • Big Four divided on RBA direction as one major bank warns two interest rate hikes still ahead | V…

    Big Four divided on RBA direction as one major bank warns two interest rate hikes still ahead | V…

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    Big Four divided on RBA direction as one major bank warns two interest rate hikes still ahead

    Australia's major banks are divided on which direction interest rates will go next. Three of the Big Four banks think interest rate rises are now over and the next move will be down, but one is predicting mortgage holders could be in for a further two interest rate hikes this year.

    The one thing all of the bank economists are in agreement about is that borrowers will get some reprieve at the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) June meeting this week. The central bank has already hiked rates three times this year, taking the cash rate to 4.35 per cent.

    ANZ joined Commonwealth Bank and NAB on Friday in predicting the RBA has reached the peak of its rate hiking cycle and will remain on hold for the rest of the year. ANZ is expecting two rate cuts in the second half of 2027.

    VIDEO: Why experts are tipping interest rates to pause

    After three interest rate increases at the start of the year, economists now expect the Reserve Bank to hold rates steady for a while. 

    After three interest rate increases at the start of the year, economists now expect the Reserve Bank to hold rates steady for a while. 

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  • RBA done raising rates as housing faces tax ‘headwinds’, banks | Three major banks predict in…

    RBA done raising rates as housing faces tax ‘headwinds’, banks | Three major banks predict in…

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    RBA done raising rates as housing faces tax ‘headwinds’, banks

    Bank economists are tipping interest rate rises are over and the next move will be down, as a former Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor warns the housing market faces headwinds from the government’s tax changes.

    HSBC on Friday joined ANZ and National Australia Bank in predicting the RBA would not move beyond its three interest rate rises this year and would be on a long hold before cutting rates next year.

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    Three major banks predict interest rates to fall next year – as it happened

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    Top economists at ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and NAB are now predicting interest rates will not rise any higher this year and will start to fall from the middle of next year.

    ANZ today changed its rate call to predict two cash rate cuts in 2027. It had previously expected rates to remain steady for the foreseeable future.

    HSBC’s Paul Bloxham also has now changed and expects no change until cuts in late 2027. Bloxham said:

    double quotation markInflation is still too high and is set to rise further before it falls. That being said, the RBA has already taken significant action to deal with this surge in inflation – and, critically, the action is working …
    We expect the RBA to be on hold in June. Although there is some risk the RBA might choose to hike again beyond that, we expect the weakening in growth to convince them to be on hold.

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  • RBA not concerned about stagflation or wage-price spiral | RBA boss says economy can weather war …

    RBA not concerned about stagflation or wage-price spiral | RBA boss says economy can weather war …

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    RBA not concerned about stagflation or wage-price spiral

    RBA governor Michele Bullock says global central banks have learned lessons from the 1970s. (ABC News: Supplied)

    RBA governor Michele Bullock says the war in the Middle East is creating a "highly uncertain" environment that could see inflation rising even higher than anticipated.

    But she is not concerned about stagflation occurring in Australia, nor a wage-price spiral.

    The RBA Board's next two-day monetary policy meeting will be held on June 15 and 16.

    Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock says the war in the Middle East is creating a "highly uncertain" environment that could easily contribute to even higher global and domestic inflation than anticipated.

    RBA boss says economy can weather war and avoid recession

    Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock believes the country will avoid a recession even if oil prices continue to climb, while rejecting even the notion that Australia is facing a period of stagflation.

    On a day that US President Donald Trump warned that the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed until September, the governor used a Senate committee hearing to argue that despite the economic headwinds caused by the war, the economy was still likely to grow over the coming years.

    The war has delivered a global shock to growth and inflation, with central banks around the world either lifting interest rates or signalling their intentions to tighten monetary policy. The Reserve Bank itself has lifted interest rates three times this year, although financial markets believe it will not move at its June and August meetings.

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  • RBA surcharge cuts and the ramifications for the card giants | Qantas and Virgin frequent flyers …

    RBA surcharge cuts and the ramifications for the card giants | Qantas and Virgin frequent flyers …

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    Qantas and Virgin frequent flyers face points pain as RBA cuts credit card surcharge

    Frequent flyers will see fewer bonus offers and earn points more slowly after the Reserve Bank of Australia said it would restrict the fees banks could charge for credit card use, crimping their ability to pay airlines.

    Qantas Frequent Flyer and Virgin Australia’s Velocity programs have become intertwined over the past decade, with banks buying up points to pass on as they tried to entice customers to their own products.

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    Banning card surcharges will make paying simpler – but not necessarily cheaper

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    University of Technology Sydney provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation AU.

    From October 1, 2026, Australians will no longer pay a fee for debit, prepaid and credit payments using eftpos, Mastercard and Visa cards. The Reserve Bank of Australia estimates the change could save consumers around A$1.6 billion a year.

    The case for change sounds simple enough: one price, no add-ons, no surprises at the end of a transaction.

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  • RBA to remove surcharges on debit, credit cards, card networks including eftpos, Mastercard and V…

    RBA to remove surcharges on debit, credit cards, card networks including eftpos, Mastercard and V…

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    RBA to remove surcharges on debit, credit cards, card networks including eftpos, Mastercard and Visa

    The RBA has been reviewing merchant card payment costs and surcharging. (Adobe Stock)

    The RBA will remove surcharges on debit and credit cards, saving consumers and businesses about $1.8 billion each year.

    The package of reforms also includes lowering the caps on interchange fees paid by Australian businesses, with a focus on small businesses currently paying the highest fees.

    Most of the reforms are due to take effect from October this year.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia has introduced reforms that will remove surcharges on debit, prepaid and credit cards on card networks including eftpos, Mastercard and Visa.

    The ban is expected to save consumers about $1.6 billion in surcharge fees each year, with businesses saving $200 million in surcharge fees annually.

    Australia politics live: inflation likely to hit 5% by June, RBA says; Chalmers welcomes Fair Work decision to scrap ‘junior’ rates for young adults

    Zomi Frankcom’s brother demands audio of deadly Israeli strike but ambassador says ‘it’s in the IDF’s hands’

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    What’s the trigger for stage three under the national plan?

    The energy minister, Chris Bowen, says we’re still on stage two of the national plan agreed to at yesterday’s national cabinet, reiterating that so far any cancelled fuel shipments have been replaced (he’s referring to the six tankers that he announced were cancelled on 22 March).

    Speaking to ABC RN Breakfast this morning, Bowen is asked what will trigger stage three?

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  • The RBA’s inflation fight finds Hail Mary in soaring Australian dollar | AUD/USD posts two-year…

    The RBA’s inflation fight finds Hail Mary in soaring Australian dollar | AUD/USD posts two-year…

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    The RBA’s inflation fight finds Hail Mary in soaring Australian dollar

    The soaring Australian dollar is acting a natural brake on inflation, with bond investors arguing that the Reserve Bank of Australia should consider how much the appreciating currency will affect economic growth.

    The dollar’s leap to a three-year high to just under US71¢ last week is providing a vital pressure valve for the economy, they say, automatically lowering the cost of imported essentials and doing some of the heavy lifting usually reserved for the central bank and its interest rate decisions.

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