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Record-smashing El Niño points to spring of drought and fires
As El Niño strengthens at an alarming rate, all previous records in the modern era could be smashed. (ABC News)
El Niño is strengthening across the Pacific Ocean at an alarming rate and could annihilate all records in the modern era.
The rapid warming of our largest ocean is supplying additional heat into the Earth's atmosphere, contributing to a summer of extreme heatwaves and fires across Europe and North America.
But with El Niño still months away from peaking, its impact on global weather will intensify through the back half of 2026, including in Australia, raising the prospect of our hottest spring on record and a heightened risk of drought and fires.
How a super El Niño affects the global climate
From sharky shores and starving seabirds to droughts, wildfires, and floods.
On June 11, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an El Niño advisory after temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remained higher than average for several months. Declaring an El Niño isn’t out of the ordinary, as they happen in cycles every two to seven years. But this one could be extraordinary.
Some are calling it a “super” or “Godzilla” El Niño, and the NOAA predicts an 81 percent chance that it could develop to a “very strong” level, rivaling the historic and devastating El Niños of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. Experts are predicting it will likely reach its peak this winter and into 2027, bringing heat, rainfall, and other potential extreme weather events.
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Record-breaking El Niño could gut California’s crab and salmon fleets
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As the chances of a ‘super’ El Niño continue to rise — now 81%, according to federal scientists — researchers are looking back to 2015 and 2016, when a Pacific heat wave combined with a strong El Niño threw some of the West Coast’s most important commercial fishing fleets into turmoil.
They say we could be looking at a repeat. Or worse.
“I think we’re likely to break global temperature records with this next El Niño,” said Malin Pinsky, professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at UC Santa Cruz. “So it’s very concerning and it is likely to have very big impacts on marine fisheries.”
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