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Prediction, pick for Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay at UFC 326
Ryan Wohl details his best bet for Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay which is taking place on UFC 326 Early Prelims.
The second fight of the UFC 326 Early Prelims features a Light Heavyweight contest between Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay. Tobias is 14-1 with 11 finishes, and recently beat Jair de Oliveira via submission to earn a UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. Nurgozhay, 28, is 10-2 but is 0-2 in the UFC. The Early Preloims begin at 5:30 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Check out my best bet for Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay on the UFC 326 Early Prelims.
Tobias trains at Chute Boxe Monstro, an offspring of the legendary Chute Boxe gym that has featured the likes of Charles Oliveira. This is Tobias’ UFC debut after being awarded a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in September 2025. Tobias is 14-1 in his MMA career with 11 victories by submission or knockout.
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Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay Pick, 03/07/2026 Predictions UFC 326 Odds
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Rafael Tobias will enter the Octagon against Diyar Nurgozhay at UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, 2026. The opening moneyline has Tobias coming in at -175 while Nurgozhay is at +150.
Rafael "Bipolar" Tobias looks to add a victory to his total of 14-1-0. The 22-year-old will fight at 205 lbs and measures in at 6'2". The orthodox fighter has a wingspan of 74". Diyar Nurgozhay measures 6'2" and will fight at 205 lbs. The southpaw fighter looks to add a win to his record of 10-2-0. The 28-year-old stretches 74". Regarding significant strikes, Rafael Tobias is connecting on 3.45 per minute and Diyar Nurgozhay is connecting on 3.04 significant strikes per minute. Tobias is landing 30% of the significant strikes he throws and Nurgozhay lands 50%. Concerning the fighter's defense, "Bipolar" absorbs 3.98 significant strikes per minute and Nurgozhay allows 2.99. Tobias also curbs 40% of the significant strikes that are directed at him while Nurgozhay defends against 61% of the shots thrown.
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