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No rate cuts until 2027 as a fourth rise looms, say economists
Economists have all but ruled out an interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia before well into next year, while the chance of another rate increase remains a line-ball call as the central bank waits to see what happens with inflation.
A very slim majority of the 32 economists polled for The Australian Financial Review’s latest quarterly survey said the cash rate had peaked at 4.35 per cent. That’s after three back-to-back rate rises at the start of the year before the RBA held fire at its June board meeting.
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Interest rate cut all but ruled out until 2027
Borrowers could have to wait until 2027 before a rate cut, according to dozens of Australia’s top economists.
However, the prospect of no further rate hikes looks more likely, with just over half of the 32 economists polled for The Australian Financial Review’s latest quarterly survey predicting that the cash rate had peaked at 4.35 per cent.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock has explicitly refused to rule out further rate hikes this year. Louise Kennerley
HSBC’s chief economist for Australia and New Zealand Paul Bloxham told the AFR he expected “an extended pause” on interest rates.
He estimated that it would take until at least mid-2027 for the Reserve Bank to be sufficiently convinced that inflation was heading back to target – particularly after an unexpected uptick in inflation late last year forced the RBA into a sharp about-face on rates.
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