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Let's simulate the rest of the 2025 NFL season: The last three weeks, plus playoff and Super Bowl results
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Rich Eisen explains why the Rams are the best NFL team after their win over the Lions. (1:46)
With three weeks left in the 2025 NFL regular season, we're starting to get a sense of which teams will be in the playoffs. The Broncos and Rams have clinched berths, but the remaining 12 postseason teams and the overall seedings remain a murky mystery.
Every day, we use ESPN's Football Power Index to simulate the season 10,000 times — driving our projections and delivering countless permutations for how the remainder of the campaign could go. Today, we're going to focus on just one of those scenarios: FPI simulation No. 5,002.
NFL playoff picture: Eagles clinch NFC East, Bears take control of NFC North and Cowboys bow out
Here's how the NFL playoff picture looks three games through the Week 16 slate that has thus far featured the Philadelphia Eagles clinching the NFC East for the second straight season, the elimination of the Dallas Cowboys from the postseason race, the Chicago Bears taking a big leap in the NFC North and Seattle assuming control of the No. 1 seed in the NFC from the Los Angeles Rams.
NFC No. 1 seed-clinching scenario: The Seahawks are in the driver's seat for home-field advantage in the NFC. Two victories to close out the season — at Panthers and at 49ers — will give them the NFC West crown, a first-round bye and home-field throughout the conference playoffs.
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NFL playoff picture: Postseason probabilities entering Week 16 of the 2025 season
Entering Week 16 of the 2025 NFL regular season, Ali Bhanpuri, with major assists from Special Projects Lead Tom Blair and Manager of NFL Research Jack Andrade, digs into the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which provides detailed estimates of each contending team's postseason chances. During live games, playoff probabilities are dynamically updated every five minutes, incorporating the latest win probabilities from NGS for all ongoing games in every simulation. Visit NFL.com's Playoff Picture for a live look at the latest postseason odds. For more context around terms like "If win," "If lose" and "playoff leverage" click here.
NOTE: All probabilities presented are current as of 11:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 16 unless otherwise noted below.
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