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Gold is meant to be a safe haven. Why hasn’t it performed like one?
When gold sold off at the start of fighting between Iran and the United States in late February, commodity strategists barely batted an eye.
A shock in risk assets – like the one that befell equity markets in the open days of the conflict – typically forces traders to unwind their highly liquid bullion holdings to cover losses in other positions. A similar phenomenon played out following the collapse of Lehman Brothers on the eve of the global financial crisis, and again at the start of the pandemic.
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Why Gold’s Safe-Haven Trade Is Breaking Down During War
Gold was supposed to be a hiding place for investors during a Middle East conflict. Instead, since the Iran war started on Feb. 28, the yellow metal has dropped 11%, raising questions about its safe-haven reputation.
That outcome seems backward. Safe-haven assets are supposed to rise in price when the world gets shaky. Yet a new research note from LPL Financial, one of the country’s largest independent broker-dealers with $2.3 trillion in client assets, argues the selloff isn’t a sign of failure.
Rather than simply acting as a refuge, gold is serving a different role right now, writes Kristian Kerr, LPL’s head of macro strategy. It functions as part commodity, part reserve asset and, during periods of stress, a stand-in for dollars.
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Gold and silver's historic rally could resume 'as fog of war lifts', market watchers say
The rally that propelled gold and silver to record-breaking highs in 2025 could pick up again if a U.S.-Iran peace deal is reached, market watchers told CNBC as prices ticked higher on Thursday.
Spot gold jumped 1.2% to $4,750 per ounce early on Thursday, amid hopes that the U.S. and Iran could be nearing a deal to bring the 69-day war to an end.
Meanwhile, spot silver added 3% to trade at $79.62 an ounce, and silver futures for July delivery jumped 3.9%.
Gold and silver both enjoyed record-smashing rallies in 2025, surging 66% and 135%, respectively, over the course of the year. However, they have seen much more volatile trade in 2026, with silver futures suffering their biggest single-day blow since the 1980s at the end of January and gold knocking more 10% off its January peak.
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