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Big El Nino in 2026 Possible Followed by Returning La Nina in 2027
Using upper ocean heat, Nino34 SSTA, and southern oscillation index constructed analog for 2026-28 ENSO forecast…Big El Nino in 2026 followed by returning La Nina in 2027.
Executive summary: Climate Impact Company combines equatorial East Pacific upper ocean heat anomalies, Nino34 SSTA, and southern oscillation index analog years to project ENSO phase for March 2026 through February 2028. The results are heavily considered in climate forecasts issued around the globe on month 1-4 ahead, season 1-4 ahead, and 2-year ahead timescales. The forecast projects El Nino development during Q2/2026 followed by a potentially strong El Nino evolving during Q3/2026. The 2026 El Nino event dissipates early next year and is followed by La Nina returning mid-to-late next year lasting into early 2028. ENSO influence on global climate, coupled with already near record warm ocean waters away from the tropics, will be significant during the next 2 years. Of note, we are within the core of the springtime ENSO predictability barrier. Forecasts are made with caution with increased confidence in 1-2 months.
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