Explore the latest developments concerning Victorian State Voting.
Victorian State Voting Intention: One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of ALP (25.5%) and L-NP Coalition (21.5%) on primary vote nine months before Victorian State Election
Only nine months before a State Election, Victorian electors are split with One Nation (26.5%) now ahead of the governing ALP (25.5%), and the official Opposition L-NP Coalition (21.5%). In addition, 13.5% support the Greens and a further 13% support other minor parties and Independents according to the special SMS Roy Morgan survey conducted from February 13-16, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,462 electors.
If a Victorian State Election were held now there would likely be a hung Parliament with a great deal of uncertainty about the results in many electorates.
The second, and third, preference decisions of voters will be more important than ever in determining the result of this year’s Victorian State Election.
One Nation, almost zero donations: Minor party short on election cash
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One Nation’s Victorian branch received less than $100 in donations last year, sparking doubt about its strength for this year’s state election battle, although Pauline Hanson’s minor party claims its membership has ballooned at least threefold in Victoria.
The party, which had its first Victorian MP, Rikkie-Lee Tyrrell, elected to the upper house in 2022, has broken through in recent federal and state polling that has upended established wisdom about the two-party system and perceptions of One Nation’s weakness in the state.
The Resolve Political Monitor for The Age, which surveyed Victorians in January and February, estimated support for the party at state level was 11 per cent. Other polls have placed support for One Nation in the 20s, making it a serious player.
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What One Nation’s rise means for Labor in Queensland
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One Nation’s rise has decimated support on the conservative side of politics, triggering an existential reckoning for the Coalition.
Federally, the party has splintered, reformed and changed leaders, while state conservative oppositions in Victoria and South Australia have bled votes to Pauline Hanson’s party.
But the numbers in Queensland, so far, tell a different story.
The latest Resolve Strategic poll for this masthead revealed the first glimpse of a Queensland state-based surge for One Nation – and it appears to have eroded votes from Labor, rather than the LNP.
For more detailed information, explore updates concerning Victorian State Voting.
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