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What a housing downturn would look like in your city
Cotality has crunched the numbers to see how far house prices may fall in different scenarios. (ABC News: Fletcher Yeung)
Double-digit declines in home values would make little dent in the gains accumulated across mid-sized housing markets during Australia's five-year housing boom, according to new analysis from property data firm Cotality.
The modelling illustrates how market pullbacks could impact capital city prices across four downturn scenarios: 5 per cent, 10 per cent, 15 per cent and 20 per cent.
Years of subdued growth have left Melbourne with a relatively thin buffer if prices were to fall, with dwelling values peaking at $840,000 in November 2025.
"A decline beyond 10 per cent in Melbourne would return values to pre-pandemic levels," Cotality head of research Gerard Burg said.
This housing correction is on track to break records
With Australia staring down a record property downturn and hidden bank hybrid risks emerging, staying super liquid is the ultimate defence against the coming storm.
Risk is everywhere you look. Long-term interest rates seem to be grinding inexorably higher: in the past month, the US 10-year Treasury yield has marched towards 5 per cent while Australia’s 10-year yield has pushed through that threshold.
We have witnessed the inception of a globally synchronised hiking cycle, with the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the European Central Bank, Norges Bank and others lifting rates.
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