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Revealed: How leadership coup has changed Labor’s electoral fortunes

The Labor Party’s decision to move against Jacinta Allan and install Ben Carroll as Victorian premier has failed to deliver a bounce in the polls, with the government’s primary support continuing to slip in the lead-up to the November state election.

A Resolve Political Monitor survey of voting intentions conducted two weeks after the leadership spill shows the Jess Wilson-led opposition in a strong electoral position. Indicative preference flows from One Nation and Labor voters are likely to deliver the Coalition a swag of seats across Melbourne’s eastern and south-eastern suburbs and in regional areas.

Labor’s primary support dropped 2 points to 25 per cent, which is the government’s worst result since its polling nadir in the lead-up to last year’s federal election. Although Carroll is significantly more popular than Allan, only 20 per cent of respondents nominated the new Labor leader as their preferred premier, a figure 4 points lower than Allan scored in her final survey as premier.

Voters ranked Australia state governments – one clear leader emerged

Last month’s leadership change in Victoria has done nothing to lift the standing of the state government, with a new survey showing voters rate its overall performance as abysmal.

In stark contrast, the South Australian Labor government of Peter Malinauskas is the standout performer among voters, and its WA counterpart is not far behind. Of the remainder of the five most populous states surveyed, the Queensland and NSW governments, the latter of which faces an election next year, are rated about average.

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Victorian State Voting Intention: L-NP Coalition and One Nation set for a majority in Victoria’s Upper House in November

The L-NP Coalition is set to win 11 seats in Victoria’s Upper House, just ahead of One Nation (10 seats) and the ALP (nine seats). Three seats are set to be won by the Greens (two seats) and Other Parties (one seat) with seven seats still undecided according to a special SMS Roy Morgan Poll conducted from August 5-7, 2026, with a representative Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,084 electors.

The SMS Roy Morgan Poll interviewed an average of over 250 electors in each of Victoria’s eight Upper House regions.

Importantly, these results show that the L-NP Coalition and One Nation are set to win a majority of at least 21 seats in Victoria’s Upper House compared to a total of 11 seats for the ALP and the Greens, with seven seats still to be decided.  

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