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Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases
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At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to
4.35 per cent.
Inflation picked up materially in the second half of 2025, and information since the beginning of
this year confirms that some of this increase reflected greater capacity pressures. In addition, the
conflict in the Middle East has resulted in sharply higher fuel and related commodity prices, which
are already adding to inflation. There are early signs that many firms experiencing cost pressures
are looking to increase prices of their goods and services. Short-term measures of inflation
expectations have also risen.
Inflation to hit 5 per cent as oil price bites – and it could get even worse
Inflation is likely to hit 5 per cent by the middle of the year and could soar to 7 per cent by Christmas if the war against Iran pushes oil to $US200 a barrel, with Jim Chalmers’ fifth budget to confirm Australians will face ongoing price pressures.
This masthead can reveal Treasury believes inflation will peak higher than the Reserve Bank estimates, contributing to a slowdown in the economy that will also feed into a softer jobs market.
The government is waiting until the latest possible time to finalise its most important economic forecasts given the turmoil in global oil markets created by the war against Iran. Brent crude has moved between $US98 and $US115 a barrel in the past five days, meaning $200 is an extreme scenario.
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