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We asked our AI model to simulate the World Cup 100,000 times. Here are the results
At the beginning of any World Cup, you can find all kinds of predictions and prognostications.
But the vast majority rely on the viewpoint of one person, one computer or one Paul the Octopus, may he rest in peace.
To kickstart this year’s World Cup, our head of visual stories Mark Stehle used AI, filled with a bunch of cutting-edge statistics, to run what is called a “Monte Carlo simulation” to identify the most likely tournament winner.
In basic terms, the Monte Carlo simulation ran through the 48 teams and their data with random probabilities thousands of times and reported which scenarios occurred the most.
Monterrey Stadium one of the most stunning World Cup venues in history
Monterrey Stadium is the star of the World Cup venues. (Getty Images: FIFA/Hector Vivas)
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will utilise some of the greatest stadiums in the world across North America.
Featuring state-of-the-art NFL facilities and one of the World Cup's most historic and storied venues, this tournament will take place amid a spectacular backdrop, despite the ticketing controversies that have threatened to leave vast swathes of empty seats.
Here are the 16 stadiums in use across the three countries: two in Canada, three in Mexico and 11 in the United States.
A lot of the stadiums are better known by names other than the ones that are being used during the tournament.
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Why the economics make this the craziest World Cup ever
Football World Cups are rarely completely politics-free but never has the beautiful game navigated a geopolitical high-wire act of this kind. The main host is at war with a participant, whose team must commute in on match days from another country.
Add to that the quite astonishing coincidence of the US, Canada and Mexico, the three co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup, being in the midst of an epic trade war. Indeed, in the period in between the opening ceremony at the Estadio Azteca, and the final in New Jersey's MetLife Stadium, the three will be renegotiating the USMCA, the North American free trade area.
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