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BoM issues a fresh 'super' El Niño reality check for Australia
SBS acknowledges the Traditional Custodians of Country and their connections and continuous care for the skies, lands and waterways throughout Australia.
Australia's current El Niño could become the strongest on record, but the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has cautioned that doesn't necessarily mean the country is headed for an exceptionally hot and dry summer.
The BoM says models indicate the El Niño underway in the Pacific Ocean could produce the highest central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly since reliable records began in 1950.
But it has stressed the strength of an El Niño does not directly determine how severe its impacts will be in Australia, with several other climate drivers influencing rainfall and temperatures.
El Nino reaches super status: Where will it bring rain, drought and heat?
Forecasters say the Pacific Ocean warming pattern could be the strongest on record. Here is what that means for you.
A powerful El Nino is taking shape in the Pacific, and it is reshaping weather across the globe.
El Nino is a natural climate pattern caused by warmer-than-usual water in the central and eastern Pacific.
Data from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), released on September 14, 2026, shows El Nino has breached the temperature rise threshold of 2C (3.6F), thus becoming “very strong”, informally known as a super El Nino.
This year’s El Nino began developing in June 2026 and is expected to peak by early 2027, with forecasters warning it could be one of the strongest ever recorded. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center expects it to persist through March-May 2027.
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The incoming ‘super’ El Niño will create chaos around the world. And we are far from ready for it | Bill McGuire
One of the biggest upheavals in a millennium is on its way, strengthened by the climate crisis. We need leaders who make things better not worse
If you think you have heard enough about the growing âsuperâ El Niño, trust me, you are going to hear a lot more. What is happening in the equatorial Pacific is jaw-dropping and could well mark one of the biggest global weather upheavals in a millennium. It will spawn a string of weather catastrophes around our world in what remains of this year and in 2027, and there is no reason to think the UK will be immune.
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