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Kharg Island: Iran’s energy lifeline that has so far escaped attack

Associate Professor in International Politics, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies, UCL

Christian Emery does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

University College London provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation UK.

As the US and Israel’s assault on Iran grinds on, the Trump administration has issued increasingly bellicose claims that American and Israeli forces are delivering ferocious blows to the Iranian regime.

The US secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, warned of the “most intense” day of strikes yet on March 10. And Donald Trump followed with a claim that the war will end soon because there is “practically nothing left” in Iran for the US military to target.

Iran’s 'oil lifeline’ has been left untouched in the conflict. What happens if it's seized?

The prospect of a U.S. move to seize Kharg Island, a strategically vital hub often referred to as Iran's "oil lifeline," is considered extremely high risk, both from a geopolitical and economic standpoint.

The five-mile-long coral island, which is located about 15 miles off the coast of mainland Iran in the waters of the northern Persian Gulf, has been left untouched through nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli-led strikes against Iran.

The Trump administration has discussed seizing the island, according to an Axios report on March 7, citing four unnamed sources with knowledge of the discussions.

White House officials have previously said they expect oil prices to fall dramatically once Operation Epic Fury comes to an end, while White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has said the president "wisely" keeps all options on the table.

Why Iran’s vital Kharg Island oil hub is still untouched by US-Israel bombers

While some argue for destroying the terminal through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow, others caution of a global market ‘tailspin’

Kharg Island – through which 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow – is arguably the country’s most sensitive economic target but the export terminal has so far remained untouched throughout the US-Israel bombing campaign.

Experts say bombing or capturing the site with US forces would be likely to cause a sustained increase to already surging oil prices, as it would amount to taking the entirety of Iran’s daily crude exports offline.

“We may see the $120 a barrel price we saw on Monday heading to the $150 if Kharg were attacked,” said Neil Quilliam, with the Chatham House thinktank. “It’s too vital for global energy markets”.

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