RBA done raising rates as housing faces tax ‘headwinds’, banks | Three major banks predict in…

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RBA done raising rates as housing faces tax ‘headwinds’, banks

Bank economists are tipping interest rate rises are over and the next move will be down, as a former Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor warns the housing market faces headwinds from the government’s tax changes.

HSBC on Friday joined ANZ and National Australia Bank in predicting the RBA would not move beyond its three interest rate rises this year and would be on a long hold before cutting rates next year.

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Three major banks predict interest rates to fall next year – as it happened

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Top economists at ANZ, Commonwealth Bank and NAB are now predicting interest rates will not rise any higher this year and will start to fall from the middle of next year.

ANZ today changed its rate call to predict two cash rate cuts in 2027. It had previously expected rates to remain steady for the foreseeable future.

HSBC’s Paul Bloxham also has now changed and expects no change until cuts in late 2027. Bloxham said:

double quotation markInflation is still too high and is set to rise further before it falls. That being said, the RBA has already taken significant action to deal with this surge in inflation – and, critically, the action is working …
We expect the RBA to be on hold in June. Although there is some risk the RBA might choose to hike again beyond that, we expect the weakening in growth to convince them to be on hold.

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